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767
FXUS61 KILN 040847
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
447 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through Friday. The area looks to dry out over the
weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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An active belt of west-southwest winds continue across the Ohio
Valley around the periphery of a mid level ridge positioned to
our south.

An axis of showers and thunderstorms associated with a trof
axis has shifted south and weakened. In the very moist
environment areas of fog/status developing in the very moist
environment with light wind flow. With some flow expect limited
reduction to visibilities with more stratus development.

Another embedded mid level shortwave along with moderate
instability will bring an enhanced chance for thunderstorms
this afternoon into early evening. Storms expected to begin
around midday in the west and move quickly east through the
area thru mid to late afternoon hours. These storms will have
the potential for strong gusty winds. Very moist environment
will also support heavy rain with localized flooding possible.

Clouds and storms will keep temperatures muted with highs
generally in the mid and upper 80s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Mid level shortwave and thunderstorm complex to be moving thru
the area thru the evening. Some additional fog development will
be possible in the moist environment overnight. Mild lows are
expected generally in the lower 70s.

More significant mid level low to track thru the Great Lakes
Friday. Associated surface cold front to sweep thru the area
during the afternoon. Some uncertainty remains regarding the
degree of instability Friday with residual cloud cover from
Thursday night`s pcpn. Given that effective shear increases to
around 40 kts, even low end moderate instability will support
a threat for severe storms mainly in the east. The main threat
will be damaging winds. Expect highs to range from the mid to
upper 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front will be progressing east of the Ohio Valley on
Friday night. Cooler, drier air moves in behind the front for
the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west through
Sunday. This will signal an end to the hot, humid, and unsettled
weather setup from this past week. Forecast highs on Saturday
remain in the lower 80s and lows Saturday night will be in the
lower 60s. Highs on Sunday reach back into the middle 80s.

Surface high pressure shifts east of the area by Monday.
Southwesterly flow redevelops west of the high which will allow
heat, humidity, and afternoon rain chances to return midweek. A weak
surface boundary and upper level shortwave may increase rain chances
on Tuesday before diurnal shower/storm chances return to lower
probabilities by Wednesday and Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The Ohio Valley remains in an active west-southwest belt around
the periphery of a mid level ridge positioned to our south. A
axis of showers and thunderstorms associated with a trof axis
has shifted south of the TAF sites. Guidance continues to point
to fog/status developing in the very moist environment with
light wind flow. Have a mention of MVFR conditions but starting
to see some IFR conditions which will last until sunrise.

Another embedded mid level shortwave along with moderate
instability will bring an enhanced chance for thunderstorms
this afternoon into early evening. Storms expected to begin
around midday in the west move quickly east through the area
thru mid to late afternoon hours. These storms will have the
potential for strong gusty winds. Have VFR cigs heading into
this afternoon but in the very moist environment conditions
will likely drop thru MVFR to IFR in storms. Fog will again be
possible tonight.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Friday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR