-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
721
FXUS62 KMHX 040646
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
246 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push offshore tonight and then remain
centered off the coast through this weekend. Oppressive heat
and humidity return this weekend as well as chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 AM Thursday...
THIS MORNING: High pressure continues slowly drifting offshore,
dominating the weather conditions through the morning. Winds
are generally calm inland and some high cloud cover streaming in
from the north/northeast. Coverage is expected to increase
along and west of hwy 17 through the early morning hours before
decreasing again mid-morning. The cloud cover, paired with a dry
atmospheric column will inhibit any impactful fog formation
this morning. However, with the winds being calm patchy, shallow
non-impactful fog is possible from 4am-8am as Tds trend higher
with the return flow from the high. Lows in the mid- upper 60s
inland, low 70s for beaches.

TODAY: Warm day on tap with highs in the low-mid 90s inland,
80s for beaches. Dry forecast and light south winds with the
high pressure centered to our east. This southerly flow will
also usher in more moisture, with Heat Indices near 100 degrees
inland. Diurnal cumulus field will develop once again in the
late morning to early afternoon and overspread the entire CWA
until the seabreeze can develop and push the cloud field further
inland. An area of weak isentropic lift along a pre frontal
trough will be to our west by 6PM Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...Prefrontal trough moves through the
region overnight. Instability will be meager at best when the
greatest forcing moves through, and despite PWATs over 2", it is
likely any showers and thunderstorms moving in from our west
dissipate entirely before reaching the western portions of the
CWA. For this reason, I decided to keep mentionable PoPs out of
the forecast, outside of western Martin County and NW Pitt
County where there is a small chance of enough instability for
showers and storms to persist shortly after sunset as the trough
moves through. Unfortunately this trough will not do much to
alleviate the drought conditions occuring in the coastal plain.
Lows are a bit higher, in the low-mid 70s inland and mid 70s for
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 AM Thu...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this
  weekend
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly diurnally driven,
  return this weekend into next week

Our most impactful weather likely occurs Friday into the
weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the
Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead,
while at the surface, high pressure will remain anchored
offshore allowing SSW flow and deeper moisture to return to the
area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing
for oppressive heat and humidity to return. High temps will soar
into the mid to upper 90s inland, upper 80s to low 90s for the
beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s.
This will likely lead to heat index values peaking at 105-110
deg for many areas, esp Fri and Sat.

A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next
week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area, while
weak upper low offshore drifts towards the SE coast. This
boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in
shower/tstm development. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and
waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep
mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast this
weekend into next week. Will continue to cap pops at chance.
At this time it looks like the lack of shear should limit
overall svr threat.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

 - VFR likely for most areas over the next 24 hrs (>80% chance)

 - BR and sub-VFR conditions possible for OAJ overnight (40%
   chance)

High pressure will shift offshore overnight, with a light
southeasterly flow allowing some shallow moisture advection to
occur off the Atlantic. Light winds and some shallow moistening
may allow a few hours of sub-VFR conditions in BR to develop,
although high clouds streaming in from the north could inhibit
BR. Guidance isn`t depicting any fog potential from OAJ, but
considering the drop to IFR observed Wednesday morning and Tds
higher today in the morning compared to yesterday, put a tempo
MVFR group for OAJ between 9-12Z. Any fog that does develop
will likely be shallow in nature. Light south-southeasterly
flow will continue through the day Thursday, with a bump up in
winds with the advancing seabreeze in the afternoon. Once again,
the risk of SHRA or TSRA looks low along the seabreeze (<10%
chance). Of note, however, TSRA approaching from the west along a
pre-frontal trough may make a run at the coastal plain of
Eastern NC (ISO, PGV). Current expectation is for the showers
and Tstorms to dissipate before reaching TAF terminals, so kept
mentions of rain or thunder out of the TAFs with this update.
There will be an increase in cloud cover however Thursday night
along the trough, although current expectation is for ceilings
to be VFR.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend and
early next week, which could bring periods of sub-VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 215 AM Thursday...Pleasant boating conditions continue
over area waters as high pressure, centered off the coast,
extends southward over the Carolinas. Ongoing 5 to 15 kt
S/SE`rly breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas will continue to persist
over our waters through Thursday. Thursday night winds veer to
become SW`rly, but remain 5-15kts.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Typical summertime pattern expected through
the period with high pressure offshore and weak boundary and sfc
trough inland. SSW winds 10-20 kt expected Fri into Sat,
strongest during the late afternoon and evening. There is
potential for a brief period of 25 kt gusts late Fri afternoon
and Fri night, which could bring SCA conditions. S-SE winds 5-15
kt Sun and Mon. Seas generally 2-4 ft through the period, with
potential for 5 ft across the outer waters Fri night into Sat.
May continue to see longer period swells from very distant
Hurricane Beryl through Fri, though should have little impact on
wave heights.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RJ/CQD
MARINE...RJ/CQD