-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
360
FXUS61 KBGM 020720
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
320 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control of the weather across the region
through Wednesday. Temperatures will increase through midweek. A
frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. Another system moves through late in
the week with an additional round of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
310 AM Update...

fog is beginning to develop in some valleys as expected. Fog
will slowly spread through the river valleys early this morning
and then lift soon after sunrise.

High pressure will be in control throughout the near term period
with an upper-level ridge building into the region today. Skies will
start out mostly sunny though some fair weather cumulus will likely
develop during the late morning/early afternoon hours. High clouds
also begin to move in later in the day. Temperatures will be
noticeably warmer today as they climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Overnight, the pressure gradient begins to tighten up over the
region. As a result, winds will begin to increase during the late
overnight hours. Temperatures will be mild, only falling into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Stronger winds and dry conditions tonight will
not be favorable for fog development. Heading into Wednesday, winds
continue to increase and become breezy. Peak gusts up to 20 to 25
mph will be possible. South-southwesterly flow will advect in warmer
air, which will help temps climb into the 80s across the region.
With dewpoints forecasted to be in the 50s and low 60s, it should be
fairly pleasant for a July, summer day as humidity will be mild. Sky
cover increases ahead of an approaching frontal system. While a
stray shower or two ahead of the system cannot be ruled out in the
evening, most guidance brings the main band of rain in overnight
(next forecast period). PoPs were weighed toward the HREF and were
too low for any mention of rain in this portion of the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
315 AM Update...

With a long wave trough set up in the central and northern
plains later this week we will be on the western edge of
ridging. This gives us SW flow with a few quick moving 500 mb
shortwaves embedded in the flow. Wednesday night starts off with
one of those shortwaves passing through bringing a cold front.
Ahead of the cold front, a low level jet will be advecting warm
moist air at 850 mb so coupled with the height falls and cooling
aloft, elevated CAPE develops with the cold front able to
provide the lift to get thunderstorms going. As of now, there is
good shear in place but surface stability and overall not very
high CAPE values will limit any severe potential. There is a
bigger risk of some isolated flash flooding as precipitable
water values rise to over 1.5 inches and moisture transportation
vectors parallel to the cold front so some training is
possible.

The front should be through by late morning on Independence day
with drier air advecting in from the west. If the front slows
down, NEPA has the potential to see showers and thunderstorms
lasting into the early afternoon. Thursday night into Friday is
looking to stay dry as we keep the W to NW flow through the
lowest 200 mb of the atmosphere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
315 AM Update...

The long term largely stays in the same pattern that we have in
the short term with the long wave trough still parked over the
upper mid west and central plains. We keep the SW flow staying
on the western edge of a ridge and with the potential for a
stronger shortwave with associated surface low this weekend, we
could see some stronger thunderstorms Friday night into
Saturday. Other than that, heat and humidity will be in place
through the weekend into early next week and with the SW flow,
decided to put in at least chances for thunderstorms each
afternoon and early evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for the majority of this TAF period.
Patchy fog may develop between now and 12z at ELM, ITH, BGM, and
AVP. Guidance only has low visibilities at ITH but conditions
look favorable at the other terminals listed. Based on
climatology, confidence is highest at ELM. The one concern is
that winds just above the surface may be slightly stronger, at
least based on model soundings, and that may be enough to limit
the fog. Conditions will be monitored and some amendments may be
needed as fog develops (or doesn`t develop). Otherwise, skies
will be clear until fair weather, mid-level clouds develop this
afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable this morning. During the
afternoon hours, winds settle between south and east with speeds
between 5 and 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL