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467
FXUS61 KBGM 302238
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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Scattered lake enhanced showers are expected tonight over
central NY. Dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday as
high pressure builds in. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms returns Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

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Increased wind gusts early this evening as low level lapse rates
have steepened some across the region. Still anticipating a few
spotty showers with the incoming upper level trough this
evening.

500 PM update...

The severe thunderstorm watch across Northeast PA and Sullivan
County has been cancelled with thunderstorms exiting the area.
While thunderstorms diminish early this evening over the
southern Catskills and Northeast PA, scattered lake enhanced
showers are expected to begin developing after 00-01Z. Minor
adjustments to PoPs and temps as of the latest update.


144 PM Update...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for Northeast PA and
Sullivan County NY until 7 PM. Storms are mostly in Wyoming
Valley-Poconos now, but the lagging frontal boundary itself is
only now just reaching Bradford County to I-88 corridor, so not
clearing counties from the Watch just yet but soon we can start
trimming.

Earlier severe line of storms produced numerous damage reports
in southern Delaware/northern Wayne counties into Sullivan
County/Roscoe area. This occurred along an outflow boundary from
overnight convection. As heating has continued, new cells are
harnessing instability and a fair amount of shear, increasing
chances for scattered severe storms. The Storm Prediction
Center has placed most of Northeast PA, and counties along/south
of the I-88 Corridor into a Slight Risk. Damaging wind gusts
remain the primary threat, but isolated hail, localized heavy
rain/flooding, and even a brief tornado cannot be totally ruled
out. Risk will push mainly east of our area by 7 PM.

High pressure will build in behind the front tonight, however
upper trough remains overhead and some lake enhanced rain
showers will be possible across Central NY overnight, with fresh
Canadian air sending lows into the lower to mid 50s for most
locations. Monday itself looks dry with pleasant temperatures
in the upper 60s-mid 70s; some post-frontal clouds initially
but eventually mixing out to mostly sunny conditions in
afternoon. We clear out Monday night in what looks like a good
radiational cooling and valley fog setup, which chilly lows of
upper 40s-mid 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 PM Update:

High pressure will be in control during most of the short term
period, which will will bring mostly sunny skies. Temperatures
on Tuesday will be at seasonable levels with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. With dew points in the 50s, it will also be
rather comfortable outside with relatively low humidity. The
high pressure system moves east of the area on Wednesday, which
will bring a southerly return flow and warmer temperatures
(highs in the 80s). Dew points will be on the rise as well
(rising into the lower to mid 60s). Late in the day, a frontal
system will approach the area, which may spark some isolated
showers or thunderstorms west of I-81. That being said, the
majority of the day looks dry and the majority of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will likely hold off until Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM Update:

The aforementioned frontal system will push through the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring showers and
thunderstorms into the area. The front then likely stalls
somewhere in the area, which will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances in the forecast for Thursday, mainly across Northeast
PA. That being said, with uncertainty regarding where the front
stalls, Thursday`s forecast (4th of July) is rather uncertain at
this time. Another wave tracks northeast and into our region by
Friday, with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Models
begin to diverge for the rest of the period, therefore relied on
NBM PoPs through Sunday. Temperatures during this time frame
will be warm with highs ranging in the lower to upper 80s with
overnight lows in the low to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Storm threat has cleared the NY terminals as of 18Z, and
cluster of nearby storms will exit KAVP area shortly after.
Associated front which has already cleared NY terminals will
pass through KAVP during midafternoon, which will allow it to
join the rest of the terminals with a postfrontal northwesterly
wind. Winds veer north-northwest or north late tonight into
Monday, with a gustiness that should prevent fog from forming
though there will probably be minor ceiling restrictions. KBGM-
KITH are more likely to manage fuel alternate required levels,
below 2000 feet, for a time during the predawn hours. Ceilings
will gradually lift and/or scatter during the day.

Outlook...

Monday night through early Tuesday morning...VFR except for
valley fog development likely for KELM.

Late Tuesday morning through Wednesday daytime...VFR.

Wednesday evening through Friday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DK/MDP/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MDP