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998
FXUS61 KBGM 300719
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
319 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cold front pushes through today with a few strong thunderstorms
possible in Northeast PA during the late morning and early
afternoon. High pressure will build into the region for the
first half of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

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320 AM Update...

Cold front approaching the region this morning with showers and
thunderstorms popping up across central NY. Some of these
thunderstorms cold be strong or borderline severe this morning
with localized damaging winds possible as well as torrential downpours.
Cold front moves through later this morning and early this
afternoon. Instability will have a chance to
develop mainly across NEPA and possibly Sullivan County, NY.
There is still nearly 50 knots of 0-6 km shear present, so any
storm that develops ahead or along the front in the late morning
and early afternoon could become strong to severe.

High pressure will build in behind the front tonight, however
upper trough remains overhead and some lake enhanced rain
showers will be possible across Central NY into Monday morning.
Otherwise, Monday looks mostly dry with pleasant temperatures in
the low 70s for highs.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

With a shortwave trough departing Monday morning, and sprawling
surface high pressure building in, the first half of the week ahead
will be dry. Breezy NW winds Monday will keep temperatures in the
lower-70s for most of area, except mid-70s for the Wyoming Valley.
Southerly return flow will bring increasingly warm temperatures
Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs reaching the 80s. A cold front
will be approaching the area from the west late Wednesday, but there
is reasonable confidence that most of the area will stay dry through
the afternoon with  the only mentionable PoPs in the extreme western
edges of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM Update...

A cold front will move into the area Wednesday night, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forecast uncertainty ramps up
beginning Thursday as upper level flow goes zonal, and the front
looks to get hung up somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic. Thursday is a
bit up in the air in terms of precip chances depending on how far
south the front can push before stalling out.

Either way, it looks to return north as a warm front on Friday, as a
weak shortwave trough and associated surface wave ripples along the
front. Early indications suggest another approaching cold front
looks to bring the chance for showers back for yet another weekend
appearance.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Moist airmass over the region with showers and thunderstorms
developing early this morning and heading into RME and SYR
around 3 AM (07Z) and eventually into ITH just before sunrise.
It is unknown at this time how far southeast this line of
thunderstorms will push, but storms may also impact ELM and BGM
later this morning, but confidence was just too low to add to
the forecast at this time. Fog and low ceiling will likely also
be a concern at ELM and AVP through the early morning hours.

Flight conditions gradually improve to VFR later this morning or
early afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR. Isolated restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly southern half of the area.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Restrictions with showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...JAB/MPK