-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
930
FXUS61 KBGM 290002
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
802 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet this evening with increasing clouds, then light showers
develop overnight. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front slowly
moves through. Some of the rain can be heavy. Showers and storms
linger into Sunday, then drier air returns Monday and lasts
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM Update...

Conditions will remain quiet across the area through this
evening with an increase in clouds. Light showers will start to
move into the area overnight, mostly across CNY, as a warm front
approaches. Lows overnight will generally range from the upper
50s to the mid 60s.

A strong low-level jet will drive moisture northward Saturday
into Saturday night ahead of a cold front that will slowly
advance toward the area. Several pieces of energy will cross the
area ahead of the front enhancing shower activity. Instability
is really lacking during the morning hours and is slow to
increase during the latter part of the afternoon and into the
evening, so the probability of thunder was reduced early in the
day. Soundings generally keep a long, skinny CAPE profile, so
heavy rainfall seems to be the biggest concern for much of the
day. PWAT values climb near to or even exceed 2 inches over the
entire area and a deep warm cloud layer will be in place. The
heaviest rain is expected during the afternoon and into the
first part of tomorrow night and areas that do see multiple
rounds of downpours are at risk for flash flooding. If there is
enough instability that can develop, then some damaging wind
gusts are possible.

Although CAPE values remain modest and mid-level lapse rates low,
shear values are strong, anywhere from 35-50 knots and SRH
values do exceed 200-300 m2/s2, which could support a brief
spin up of a tornado in the region. Right now the SPC does have
a 2% contour over most of the CWA with a 5% contour just
clipping portions of Steuben and Bradford Counties.

Highs Saturday are expected to be from the mid 70s to near 80
degrees. Lows Saturday night are expected to be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...

A cold front will just be moving into the Finger Lakes on Sunday
morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely to be
ongoing across the area. The front will push east of the area by
mid-afternoon, but there`s a narrow window for a few isolated
thunderstorms to become strong to severe late in the morning
into the early afternoon hours before the front exits. The main
shortwave trough looks to lag behind the front considerably, and
this will keep the risk for a few showers behind the front into
the overnight hours.

Monday will be dry, cooler, and breezy with NW winds. Max
temperatures look to top out in the lower to middle-70s.

High pressure settling in overhead Monday night will diminish
the winds and set us up for another somewhat cool night, with
low temps dropping into the upper-40s to lower-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM Update...

High pressure sliding east of the area on Tuesday will bring
a return of SW flow and warmer temperatures reaching into the
upper-70s and lower-80s, with continued dry conditions. The dry
weather looks to continue into Wednesday, with a cold front
bringing scattered showers and possible thunderstorms to the
area later Wednesday night. With the off and on wet weather
lately, Monday morning to Wed evening presents the longest dry
stretch of the week. The front pushing through Wednesday night
stalls out to our south on Thursday, and a disturbance rippling
along it will bring the chance of rain back to the area Thursday
night into Friday, with precip chances slightly favoring NEPA
and the Southern Tier.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions are expected through most of the overnight and
early morning hours, essentially until around 12z. Under
southerly flow, a marine layer will try to bring ceilings down
at AVP prior to rain moving in. Otherwise, light rain showers
move in from the northwest Saturday morning. These showers are
not expected to bring visibility restriction initially but
ceilings will begin to fall. Heavier showers will move in
tomorrow afternoon, which will reduce visibilities and ceilings.
Conditions were capped at Fuel Alt to MVFR but guidance does
hint at IFR. With scattered thunderstorms also possible,
visibility may be greatly reduced, but this will likely be
handled by tempo groups as storms develop.

Southerly calm winds will become gusty overnight with gusts as
high as 20 kts. Tomorrow, as the system moves in with the
showers, gusts will be 20 to 25 kts through the afternoon and
early evening hours. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected at
most CNY terminals overnight. Direction will be south-southwest
with speeds up to 40 kts at 2000 ft AGL. Guidance was hinting
add another round of LLWS after 18z Saturday at SYR and RME, but
if there is convection, then that would be the source of any
wind shear and would not be put into the TAFs.


Outlook...


Saturday Night through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, especially Saturday night.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...BTL