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782
FXUS61 KBGM 011825
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
225 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today with dry conditions expected for
the first half of the week. A frontal system moves into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
2 PM Update...
No major changes to the going forecast for today. Boosted cloud
cover a little as skies remain partly to mostly cloudy.

600 AM Update...

Updated Pops using a blend of Canadian and Euro as lake
enhanced showers have lingered into the morning hours. Also made
slight adjustments to temperatures and dew points using current
observations, otherwise remaining forecast is on track.

400 AM Update...

Surface high pressure builds over the midwest expanding into our
region keeping conditions dry today with mostly sunny skies.
Regardless upper level trough remains overhead for most of the
day before gradually moving east. This keeps northwest flow in
place with cooler temperatures expected as highs will range in
the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Breezy conditions are
expected this morning and afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots.
Clear conditions persist into the evening and overnight hours
with calming winds. This makes it a favorable night for
radiational cooling with forecasted lows ranging in the upper
40s to low 50s across the area. Went with the NBM 10th
percentile to adjust temperatures lower accordingly. Surface
high pressure centers over our region on Tuesday with another
sunny day in store and lighter winds. Upper level ridge begins
to push into the region with southerly flow returning. This
allows temperatures to return to the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
220 PM Update...

Wednesday should remain dry as high pressure squeezes out one
more nicer day before a weak frontal boundary moves through on
Independence day. Chances for showers and storms are possible
for the holiday. The chance for any storms to become severe is
low due to lack of instability. Temperatures will be in the
mid-80s for Wednesday and Thursday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
220 PM Update...

Another weak system will continue giving chances for showers and
storms for Friday and Saturday, with a break heading into next
week. Warm and humid conditions expected through the long-term
period, with temperatures will be summerlike in the low- to
high-80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies are mostly scattered to broken, but where ceilings
persist, heights have lifted well into VFR range. Expect cloud
cover to dissipate quickly after dark.

NW to N winds have been a little less gusty than expected, be a
few gusts to around 20 knots will remain possible through the
afternoon hours.

Winds will become calm overnight. Valley fog would be a concern,
but dewpoints are expected to drop into the mid-40s, while
temperatures stay in the upper-40s overnight.

VFR conditions and light/variable winds tomorrow will trend
towards light southerly late in the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...ES/MPH