-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
257
FXUS61 KBGM 010604
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered lake enhanced showers are expected overnight in central
NY. Dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday as high
pressure builds in. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM Update...

Radar imagery shows lake enhanced showers continuing over
central NY. CAMs show these showers dissipating within the next
few hours as drier air starts to filter in. Model soundings
also support this as temperature and dew point profiles begin to
unzip. Only the NAM shows light showers holding ground until
sunrise. Kept slight chance pops in the forecast at this time.
Otherwise made changes to update temperatures and dew points
with the latest observations.

930 PM Update...

Expanded the coverage of showers a bit into the overnight with
the late evening update given the current radar trends. Still
only a low chance of measurable rainfall over central NY.
Increased wind gusts early this evening as low level lapse rates
have steepened some across the region. Still anticipating a few
spotty showers with the incoming upper level trough this
evening.

500 PM update...

The severe thunderstorm watch across Northeast PA and Sullivan
County has been cancelled with thunderstorms exiting the area.
While thunderstorms diminish early this evening over the
southern Catskills and Northeast PA, scattered lake enhanced
showers are expected to begin developing after 00-01Z. Minor
adjustments to PoPs and temps as of the latest update.


144 PM Update...

High pressure will build in behind the front tonight, however
upper trough remains overhead and some lake enhanced rain
showers will be possible across Central NY overnight, with fresh
Canadian air sending lows into the lower to mid 50s for most
locations. Monday itself looks dry with pleasant temperatures
in the upper 60s-mid 70s; some post-frontal clouds initially
but eventually mixing out to mostly sunny conditions in
afternoon. We clear out Monday night in what looks like a good
radiational cooling and valley fog setup, which chilly lows of
upper 40s-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 PM Update:

High pressure will be in control during most of the short term
period, which will will bring mostly sunny skies. Temperatures
on Tuesday will be at seasonable levels with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. With dew points in the 50s, it will also be
rather comfortable outside with relatively low humidity. The
high pressure system moves east of the area on Wednesday, which
will bring a southerly return flow and warmer temperatures
(highs in the 80s). Dew points will be on the rise as well
(rising into the lower to mid 60s). Late in the day, a frontal
system will approach the area, which may spark some isolated
showers or thunderstorms west of I-81. That being said, the
majority of the day looks dry and the majority of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will likely hold off until Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM Update:

The aforementioned frontal system will push through the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring showers and
thunderstorms into the area. The front then likely stalls
somewhere in the area, which will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances in the forecast for Thursday, mainly across Northeast
PA. That being said, with uncertainty regarding where the front
stalls, Thursday`s forecast (4th of July) is rather uncertain at
this time. Another wave tracks northeast and into our region by
Friday, with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Models
begin to diverge for the rest of the period, therefore relied on
NBM PoPs through Sunday. Temperatures during this time frame
will be warm with highs ranging in the lower to upper 80s with
overnight lows in the low to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stratus deck is spread across the area from northwest to
southeast. This is associated with an upper trough that will be
pushing through the area tonight and exiting to the east during
the morning hours tomorrow. This system combined with winds out
of the north-northwest can produce spotty to scattered lake
enhanced rain showers.

Expecting ceilings to bounce between categories for the next few
hours. TEMPOS have been included at all sites with ceilings as
low as IFR possible at SYR/ITH/BGM/ELM. RME will most likely
alternate between MVFR to Fuel Alt with MVFR ceilings possibly
making it down to AVP. Ceilings will gradually improve mid- to-
late morning tomorrow as high pressure builds in and clouds
scatter out.

Winds are expected to remain gusty out of the north-northwest
through the evening with gusts of 20-25 mph before easing a
little overnight. Winds are expected to increase again tomorrow
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night through early Tuesday morning...VFR except for
valley fog development likely for KELM.

Late Tuesday morning through Wednesday daytime...VFR.

Wednesday evening through Friday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK/MWG
NEAR TERM...DK/ES/MDP/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK/ES