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207
FXUS61 KBGM 020714
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be in control of the weather across the region
through Wednesday. Temperatures will increase through midweek. A
frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. Another system moves through late in
the week with an additional round of showers and storms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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310 AM Update...

fog is beginning to develop in some valleys as expected. Fog
will slowly spread through the river valleys early this morning
and then lift soon after sunrise.

High pressure will be in control throughout the near term period
with an upper-level ridge building into the region today. Skies will
start out mostly sunny though some fair weather cumulus will likely
develop during the late morning/early afternoon hours. High clouds
also begin to move in later in the day. Temperatures will be
noticeably warmer today as they climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Overnight, the pressure gradient begins to tighten up over the
region. As a result, winds will begin to increase during the late
overnight hours. Temperatures will be mild, only falling into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Stronger winds and dry conditions tonight will
not be favorable for fog development. Heading into Wednesday, winds
continue to increase and become breezy. Peak gusts up to 20 to 25
mph will be possible. South-southwesterly flow will advect in warmer
air, which will help temps climb into the 80s across the region.
With dewpoints forecasted to be in the 50s and low 60s, it should be
fairly pleasant for a July, summer day as humidity will be mild. Sky
cover increases ahead of an approaching frontal system. While a
stray shower or two ahead of the system cannot be ruled out in the
evening, most guidance brings the main band of rain in overnight
(next forecast period). PoPs were weighed toward the HREF and were
too low for any mention of rain in this portion of the forecast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...

Wednesday should remain dry as high pressure squeezes out one
more nicer day before a weak frontal boundary moves through on
Independence day. Chances for showers and storms are possible
for the holiday. The chance for any storms to become severe is
low due to lack of instability. Temperatures will be in the
mid-80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM Update...

Another weak system will continue giving chances for showers and
storms for Friday and Saturday, with a break heading into next
week. Warm and humid conditions expected through the long-term
period, with temperatures will be summerlike in the low- to
high-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for the majority of this TAF period.
Patchy fog may develop between now and 12z at ELM, ITH, BGM, and
AVP. Guidance only has low visibilities at ITH but conditions
look favorable at the other terminals listed. Based on
climatology, confidence is highest at ELM. The one concern is
that winds just above the surface may be slightly stronger, at
least based on model soundings, and that may be enough to limit
the fog. Conditions will be monitored and some amendments may be
needed as fog develops (or doesn`t develop). Otherwise, skies
will be clear until fair weather, mid-level clouds develop this
afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable this morning. During the
afternoon hours, winds settle between south and east with speeds
between 5 and 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BTL