Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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376 FXUS61 KBGM 300148 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 948 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers and thunderstorms overnight through the day tomorrow. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible in Northeast PA in the late morning and early afternoon tomorrow but most of the region will stay dry. High pressure will build into the region for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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940 PM Update... Lowered PoPs for the next several hours across CNY where largely dry conditions are expected until additional spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm pop up overnight. The probability of thunder was also reduced through the overnight hours with modest amounts of instability in place but still plenty of shear, so it wasn`t completely ruled out. Both sustained winds and gusts were running higher than most observation sites, so they too were reduced through the overnight. 300 PM Update... Thick cloud cover and widespread rain has kept most of the region cooler this afternoon but dew points have been able to creep up with the southerly flow at the surface. A warm front is trying to push northward with the nose of the surface warm front into central PA to western NY already. As of now, surface based CAPE is all S and W of our region but as these showers move through, there will be couple hours of thinner clouds as well as time for that warm front to make its way into NEPA and the Southern Tier of NY. Still there is more showers that exist in the warm sector than many of the models show so right now, it is likely there will be less instability this afternoon and evening for our area. Despite the lower CAPE, the BGM radar vertical wind profile has continued to show robust speed and directional shear in the low levels with the 3 hour average 0-1km SRH over 400m2/s2 and 0-3km shear near 40 knots. If a storm can take on an easterly component that would maximize use of the environmental helicity and could produce a tornado, even if it is just a stronger shower with no lightning. Luckily without high amounts of instability, anything that does form will be on the weaker side. Tonight, an upper level trough begins to dig in with upper level flow becoming more northwesterly. Morning models showed cooler and drier air making its way in faster so chances of precipitation were lowered after midnight but at least kept at a slight chance as there is enough low level moisture in place still for isolated to scattered showers and drizzle. Tomorrow, a cold front moves through and the timing of that front will determine tomorrows severe risk. As of now, it looks like the cold front makes it through most of the region in the morning with instability mainly developing in NEPA. There will be nearly 50 knots of 0-6 km shear present so any storm that develops ahead or along the front in the late morning and early afternoon could become strong with all hazards possible. The 12Z HREF mean CAPE and 2m Temperatures do show that there was a slight slowing of the front so it is possible that we may see SPC bring the slight risk for tomorrow farther west if the trend continues with this evenings runs. HREF CAPE spread for the 25-75 percentile for AVP is 1300 to 2500 J/kg while BGM is from roughly 1000 to 1300 J/kg so the risk will increase as you head SE tomorrow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 250 PM Update... With a shortwave trough departing Monday morning, and sprawling surface high pressure building in, the first half of the week ahead will be dry. Breezy NW winds Monday will keep temperatures in the lower-70s for most of area, except mid-70s for the Wyoming Valley. Southerly return flow will bring increasingly warm temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs reaching the 80s. A cold front will be approaching the area from the west late Wednesday, but there is reasonable confidence that most of the area will stay dry through the afternoon with the only mentionable PoPs in the extreme western edges of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 250 PM Update... A cold front will move into the area Wednesday night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forecast uncertainty ramps up beginning Thursday as upper level flow goes zonal, and the front looks to get hung up somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic. Thursday is a bit up in the air in terms of precip chances depending on how far south the front can push before stalling out. Either way, it looks to return north as a warm front on Friday, as a weak shortwave trough and associated surface wave ripples along the front. Early indications suggest another approaching cold front looks to bring the chance for showers back for yet another weekend appearance. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR was sneaking into the region behind today`s earlier rainfall. These conditions should prevail for several hours this evening, especially along the line from KELM-KITH-KSYR-KRME before nighttime stabilization occurs and the rain soaked boundary layer reforms more restrictive clouds...generally in the MVFR- Fuel Alt range. Visibility restrictions may be of most concern at KAVP where light, up-valley SW winds are forecast. IFR a possibility here before winds increase overnight and help dissipate. Elsewhere, it is going to be a fine balance between any significant clearing and loss of wind. General thinking is that winds will mix enough for fog to not be an issue even at KELM. Confidence in the overall forecast is low-medium, particularly with regard to any fog. In addition, model guidance suggests periods of disorganized convection overnight, but there`s very little confidence to mention for any terminal. Flight conditions gradually improve to VFR on Sunday with winds gusting becoming WNW and gusty 15-20 kts by 18Z. Outlook... Sunday...VFR. Isolated restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly southern half of the area. Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/MWG NEAR TERM...AJG/DK SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...JAB
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