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178
FXUS61 KBGM 280809
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
409 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Quiet and dry conditions cotinue today with seasonal temperatures.
The next system moves in time for the weekend with periods of
showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday and Saturday night.
Showers linger into Sunday as the system makes an exit, drier air
filters back in at the start of the work week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 AM Update...

A cool start this morning, otherwise a pleasant day is in store
with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s with a few
spots reaching the low 80s by afternoon. Sunny skies will
dominate most of the day as high pressure remains in control.
Clouds begin to filter back in Friday evening ahead of the next
system. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s with
pockets of mid 50s over the Western Catskills region. A first
round of showers will gradually move into the region after
midnight becoming more steady by late Saturday morning/Saturday
afternoon as the second round moves in.

Trends for tomorrow continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year with
values surpassing 2 inches. A deep warm cloud layer also remains
consistent with a depth of 12-13 K ft. WPC has the entire
region in a marginal risk for flash flooding. SPC has the very
western portion of our CWA in a slight risk and the remaining
area in a marginal risk for severe. In terms of severe there is
a strong low level jet the pushes in Saturday afternoon, but
forecast soundings continue to show modest instability for
tomorrow afternoon, but plenty of shear. Instability begins to
work its way into the western portion of our CWA late tomorrow
afternoon/early evening with increasing CAPE and steep lapse
rates, so this timeframe will have to be monitored. In
conclusion the severe threat will depend on when and whether
instability will make its way east into our region. The most
likely potential hazard for our region will be localized flash
flooding especially for areas that have seen recent rainfall.
Deep southerly flow in place temperatures on Saturday warm into
the mid 70s to low 80s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

There are no significant changes with the 12Z model guidance for
this period. SPC and WPC both have the region in a marginal
risks for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. The more
likely potential hazard will be localized flash flooding. As far
as severe thunderstorms...there is a strong low level jet the
pushes in Saturday afternoon, but forecast soundings are showing
very little if any instability during the day Saturday. At this
time, the thinking is for possibly some embedded thunder among
heavy rain showers, but severe threat looks quite low.

315 AM Update...

Rain showers and thunderstorms move in from the west early
Saturday morning as deep SW return flow advects moisture into
the region. Models continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year with
values surpassing 2 inches. This along with a deep warm cloud
layer of 12-13K feet suggests conditions are favorable for heavy
rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flash
flooding. The convective potential at this time continues to be
unfavorable as the early arrival of rainfall should limit
instability. Rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday
night with a relatively warm temperatures as lows will range in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
220 PM Update...

Cold front will exit the region Sunday morning, but with upper
trough pushing overhead, some diurnal showers (possibly lake
enhanced) will be possible during the afternoon. Overnight
temperatures behind the front will be cooler with lows ranging
in the low to upper 50s.

Surface high pressure moves in overhead on Monday, bringing dry
and warm conditions through the first half of the week. The
pattern becomes zonal mid week with several perturbations
pushing through the flow that will bring our next rain chances
Wednesday and through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Radiational cooling and calm winds should be in full swing with
this high overhead, so a few of our terminals will have a good
chance to see restrictions from fog.

ELM should see IFR to LIFR conditions after 9z as winds go calm
and temps fall fast. Rain yesterday and clouds today should
have kept the surface wet enough to generate fog tonight at the
terminal. The question is how quick will it begin. Cirrus is
skirting by the terminal and could have the potential of
delaying fog formation. Although temperatures have already
fallen close to the cross over temperature.

BGM, ITH and RME could also see restrictions, but confidence
was not high enough to put IFR in this TAF set. Winds will
become light but given the elevations these terminals are at and
that guidance is really not showing much of a chance, TEMPO
MVFR was included in the TAFs.

SYR and AVP will be VFR for the entire forecast period.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers at CNY
terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...ES/JTC