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291
FXUS62 KILM 040728
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
328 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move offshore bringing warmer and more humid
air to the Carolinas. Daytime heat indices could exceed 105
degrees beginning Friday. Thunderstorm chances will increase
this weekend into early next week as a cold front stalls inland.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest surface analysis shows broad high pressure that extends up
and down the entire eastern seaboard. The old frontal boundary in SC
Lowcountry is still hanging on, but has made a slight northward push
into the Sea Islands of Beaufort County, SC. Meanwhile, the
anticyclone continues to spin over the Deep South.

Surface high pressure moves offshore today, which increases the
onshore flow across the area. Subsidence keeps rain chances at bay,
with a stout inversion noted at around 700mb. The bad news is that
heat and humidity is on the rise, and heat indices will hit the
triple digits today for the first time since last weekend. We don`t
quite hit Heat Advisory criteria (heat index of 105-109 degrees for
2+ hours), but it doesn`t necessarily matter. Keep up the water
intake, wear light clothing, and limit the outdoor activities. Stay
frosty.

Lows tonight in the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Some of the typical
cool spots may try to dip down into the upper 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Highlights:
*Unseasonably hot and humid through the period with Heat Advisories
likely and possibly also Excessive Heat Warnings

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:

Main concern this period is the excessive heat and humidity as an
unusually warm air mass under deep high pressure prevails. This will
generally keep rain chances limited until possibly Saturday
afternoon across inland areas where moisture/forcing will be a bit
more favorable. Fortunately, the severe storm threat appears pretty
low given the lack of deep layer shear. However, minor flooding is
probably more of a threat given the potential of heavy rainfall
given the plentiful moisture (PWAT >2") and weak deep layer flow.

Temps should be above normal through the period with highs mostly in
the mid to upper 90s and lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Heat
indices should peak mostly below Excessive Heat Warning criteria
(110 degrees) Friday with Heat Advisories most likely away from the
immediate coast. On Saturday heat indices should be similar despite
possibly lower temps since dewpoints should be a bit higher.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Highlights:
*Dangerous heat/humidity possible through the period

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:

An upper low offshore early in the week could help weaken the upper
ridge a bit but generally looks like the ridge will remain in place.
At the surface, an approaching cold front should lose steam as it
heads our way early in the week but could help increase rain chances
a bit. Although can`t rule out a few severe storms through the
period, the bigger concern will likely continue to be the heavy rain
and minor flood potential. Models currently suggest some decent rain
potential this period, especially inland where drought conditions are
the worse. Although temps will be greatly dependent on the
rain/cloud coverage we should have at least a slight risk for Heat
Advisory potential each day, especially away from the immediate
coastal areas.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR throughout the 06Z TAF period. Low chance/confidence
in brief MVFR ceilings at KCRE/KMYR over the next few hours. Fog
also possible near KFLO in the remainder of the overnight hours,
but confidence is also low here. Fog should quickly erode after
sunrise, if it`s to occur. Light and variable winds should
persist through the AM hours, until a SSE seabreeze pushes
inland early Thursday afternoon. Light SSW breeze towards the
end of the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of
the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of
flight restrictions this weekend and into early next week as
chances for convection return.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight...Southeasterly winds become SSW by tonight.
Sustained speeds at 5-10kts to start, and then kick up to 10-15kts
this afternoon and evening. Seas linger at 1-3ft, with an easterly
swell at 6-7 seconds, and then long period southeasterly swells at
12-14 seconds (from Hurricane Beryl).

Friday through Monday...Atlantic high pressure will prevail with a
cold front likely stalling out inland early next week. Although
winds will be elevated at times, mainly each afternoon due to the
sea breeze, they should mostly stay 20 kt or less. Seas will stay 4
ft or less with wave periods diminishing through the period as the
SE swells subside. Thus, not expecting any Small Craft
Advisories.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...RJB/IGB