-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
961
FXUS61 KBGM 040542
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
142 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, warm, and dry conditions will continue this afternoon.
A weakening front will move through the region tonight into
Thursday morning bringing scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Scattered showers and storms will be possible
again for Independence Day, but coverage will be limited to
Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM Update...

Showers dissipated fast as they entered the CWA. Much faster
than CAM guidance suggested. The best forcing is currently over
Lake Ontario, and looks like it will sink south a little,
bringing some rain showers across the northern Finger Lakes into
Oneida county in a couple of hours. A weak cold front will slide
through overnight, bringing scattered rain showers to get
region.

The rest of the forecast remains on track.


630 PM Update...

Some light radar returns are moving into Steuben county, but
most seem to be virga. Some heavier showers should push into the
western Finger Lakes in an hour or two but guidance shows them
tapering off pretty quickly. Some scattered showers with an
isolated rumble of thunder will be possible from Steuben to
Oneida county this evening, with more widespread showers later
tonight as the weak front moves into the area. The forecast
remains on track with updates to PoPs based on the latest trends
and CAM guidance.



215 PM Update...
A weak cold front will push its way through Central NY and NE
PA tonight, bringing chances for showers and storms. This front
is pretty weak, so chance for storm development is rather low,
and the best chances for some thunder will be mainly in NE PA
and the Catskills. Chances for showers will linger into
Independence Day, but mainly remain over NE PA and the
Catskills. Temperatures expected in the mid to upper 80s
tomorrow, with tonight`s overnight lows in the low 60s to low
70s, and Thursday`s overnight lows in the low to upper 60s.
Precipitation amounts tonight through Independence Day is
expected to be between a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain.
Any shower or storm that passes over an area may have a short
duration of heavier downpours with localized greater amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM Update...
Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms will focus on
Friday night into Saturday. There is some uncertainty for
whether a few stronger cells may be involved, as well as locally
heavy rainfall.

Friday a surface low in the western Great Lakes deepens and
moves east with a warm front lifting into the region. The warm
air advection looks weak initially so despite some lift, it does
not look like enough forcing is in place to get much more than
a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms going during the day
Friday. However, it will be quite warm and humid, with heat
index values reaching into lower-mid 90s for much of the area,
and especially in the Wyoming Valley of PA.

As was already mentioned in the previous version of the
discussion, better dynamics move in Friday evening and
overnight with better lift as another warm front moves in with
better chances of showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to be
good overnight with near 50 knots of 0-6 km shear but forecast
soundings show stable air near the surface and elevated CAPE
staying below 1000 J/kg with a low equilibrium level so severe
thunderstorms are unlikely overnight. Precipitable water values
will be over 1.5 inches and could approach 2 inches so heavy
rainfall will be likely with showers and thunderstorms that do
develop. Storm motions will be 20 to 30 knots so that will limit
residence time of the higher rain rates but any training could
lead to isolated/localized flash flooding potential Friday
night into Saturday morning. The nocturnal timing of this
frontal system brings into question how much instability can
actually be realized, but the dynamics may provide the boost
that would be needed.

The surface low passes north of the Region Saturday with a
front dragging through NY and PA. Models are trending a bit
faster with the exit of the front which may allow much of the
area to actually dry out after the Friday night-early Saturday
activity. That said, still some uncertainty in timing and thus
we still hang on to some chances of showers and storms
especially east of I-81. Pretty confident though that we dry out
Saturday night as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
305 PM Update...
After a quiet Sunday, we may enter a more active pattern towards
the middle of next week as heat and humidity interact with
passing waves.

High pressure visits during the second half of the weekend with
a pleasant day Sunday; highs of mid 70s-mid 80s with
comfortable dewpoints.

Heat and humidity build quickly Monday into Tuesday via
southwest flow on the edge of a ridge. With upper jet in
vicinity and likely passing shortwaves, there will probably be
triggers for convection Tuesday-Wednesday with heat and humidity
available as fuel plus shear from the strong flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front is moving in with some showers near SYR and RME.
These will move into SYR and RME bringing some MVFR cigs into
the mid morning hours. These showers will become less widespread
as they drop south into ITH, ELM, and BGM later this morning but
some brief MVFR cigs is possible so tempos were added to ELM
and BGM while ITH has a better shot at longer durations of lower
cigs. AVP will not have the front reach them until this
afternoon where a few showers and thunderstorms could pop up
towards 0Z.

As we head towards 6Z tonight, fog will be developing but
restrictions at ELM should hold off until after 6Z.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern
with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...JTC/KL
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...AJG/MDP
AVIATION...AJG/MPK