053
FXUS61 KBGM 030642
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
242 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle east of the area tonight, allowing
breezy south to southwesterly flow to develop on Wednesday. A
weakening front moving through the area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms with it. These will mostly settle south of the
area for Independence Day, but another system will bring
additional showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1225 AM Update...

Temperatures were the main focus for this update. Most areas are
in the 60s and a few remain in the 70s. While there are a few
cooler areas as well, most of the changes were increases through
the rest of the overnight hours. As clouds move in, that will
slow down any additional cooling. Winds and sky cover were also
touched up based on the the latest observations, though those
changes were more minor.

935 PM Update...
With the steady stream of high clouds over the area, removed
the patchy valley fog overnight and early tomorrow morning. No
other notable changes at this time.

630 PM Update...

Not much to update at this time with the current forecast
remaining on track on this quiet evening. Blended in the latest
obs over the next several hours, and did take out some patchy
valley fog that was in this evening, as if any develops it would
be later on tonight. Confidence on the valley fog overnight and
early tomorrow is low due to the higher dewpoint depressions
expected combined with mid and high level clouds that will
continue to stream in from the west-northwest.

320 PM Update...
Some high clouds will continue to spill over an upper level
ridge over the area tonight, as surface high pressure drifts
east of the area. Temperatures will cool down into the
middle-50s for most of the area tonight, and some valley fog is
possible, though likely not as widespread as this past morning,
as dewpoint depressions will be a little higher.

High pressure will settle east of New England on Wednesday, with
return south to southwest flow becoming a little breezy in the
afternoon. A weak cold front will approach western NY/PA late
in the afternoon, with some increasing mid-level clouds across
our area. Any showers or thunderstorms look to hold off until
the evening hours, and even then will be confined to the western
Finger Lakes.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will pass through the area
Wednesday night. They`ll be weakening as upper level support
looks limited, with just weak disturbances embedded in quasi-
zonal flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 AM Update...

Thursday night will have weak ridging trying to build in with
gradually increasing 500 mb heights though there is no
definitive ridge axis. Many of the global models have a stalled
surface front across central PA extending into the mid Atlantic
that could have showers and thunderstorms through the night so
chances of precipitation were kept in NEPA but removed north of
the Southern Tier.

Friday a surface low in the western Great Lakes deepens and
moves east with a warm front lifting into the region. The warm
air advection looks weak initially so despite some lift, it does
not look like enough forcing is in place to get much more than
a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms going during the day
Friday. Better dynamics move in Friday evening and overnight
with better lift as another warm front moves in with better
chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to
be good overnight with near 50 knots of 0-6 km shear but
forecast soundings show stable air near the surface and elevated
CAPE staying below 1000 J/kg with a low equilibrium level so
severe thunderstorms are unlikely overnight. Precipitable water
values will be over 1.5 inches and could approach 2 inches so
heavy rainfall will be likely with showers and thunderstorms
that do develop. Storm motions will be 20 to 30 knots so that
will limit residence time of the higher rain rates but any
training could lead to localized flash flooding potential Friday
night into Saturday morning.

The surface low passes north of the Region Saturday with a
front dragging through NY and PA. Timing of the front passage is
still a little uncertain but most of the overnight models had
the front through by mid to late morning Saturday keeping the
highest chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and
east of I-81 where there is time to get more instability to
build. The front will mainly advecting drier air so there is not
expected to be much of a temperature drop but likely an
increase in winds and falling dew points in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM Update...

The long term is looking hot and humid as a long wave trough
remains across the northern plains with the east coast remaining
on the west side of a ridge. SW flow will continue to advect in
the warm humid air with frequent embedded shortwaves bringing
frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms. Being on the edge
of the ridge, the 250 mb jet stream will be close by and mean
0-6 km shear is 20 to 40 knots Sunday into early next week.
Similar to last week, there is potential for a few stronger
thunderstorms each day with the heat and humidity leading to
instability developing with day time heating.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will keep conditions at VFR throughout this TAF
period. Winds will become stronger during the daytime hours
today with peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts at the NY terminals but
then become calmer at most terminals after 00z tonight. A front
approaches the region with rain tonight. This was left out of
the TAFs for now as it moves in just prior to 06z.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern
with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MPH
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL