656
FXUS61 KBGM 012325
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
725 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control of the weather across the area,
bringing fair weather and increasing temperatures through
Wednesday. A frontal system will move into the region Wednesday
night into Thursday with showers and thunderstorms lingering
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
720 PM Update...
Last of diurnal cumulus tufts are drying up. In for a clear
night with good radiational cooling. There is still some
advective wind at the moment, but we will have calm conditions
in sheltered valleys especially in the few hours up to and
including dawn. We actually did not get full mixing down of dry
air, so dewpoint depressions will be narrow enough to allow
valley fog formation given the setup, especially any valleys
that had recent rainfall. Patchy fog has been expanded to
additional valleys accordingly where needed. Forecast otherwise
on track with a cool crisp night ahead.

Previous discussion...
Still plenty of fair weather cu around the area this afternoon,
with partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailing. NW winds have
been a little breezy, gusting 20 to 25 mph at times.
Temperatures have generally been in the upper-60s to lower-70s,
though areas near and north of the Thruway have managed to warm
up into the mid-70s.

Clouds will dissipate quickly after sunset, and with high
pressure moving overhead, winds will become light and variable.
Temperatures look to drop into the upper-40s by dawn. Patchy
valley fog will be possible along the Susquehanna, especially
the upper tributaries.

Return flow will bring warmer temperatures back to the area for
tomorrow (Tuesday), with highs returning to the 80s. The period
will remain precip-free.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...

Wednesday should remain dry as high pressure squeezes out one
more nicer day before a weak frontal boundary moves through on
Independence day. Chances for showers and storms are possible
for the holiday. The chance for any storms to become severe is
low due to lack of instability. Temperatures will be in the
mid-80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 PM Update...

Another weak system will continue giving chances for showers and
storms for Friday and Saturday, with a break heading into next
week. Warm and humid conditions expected through the long-term
period, with temperatures will be summerlike in the low- to
high-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions through the 00Z Tue to 00Z Wed TAF period as
high pressure dominates the area, with a valley fog exception at
1-2 terminals. Dry air did not fully mix down at KELM this
afternoon, which has increased confidence that good cooling
conditions tonight will allow for valley fog to develop after
all given the somewhat higher-than-expected dewpoints, thus it
has been added to the TAF. It will fluctuate a bit initially,
but especially that couple hours up to and including dawn it
will likely be IFR if not even approaching airport minimums at
times. More iffy for KAVP, but at least a little light mist
figured near dawn. Other terminals likely to stay VFR
throughout. Winds becoming light or calm overnight, then light
southeast on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MDP/MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MDP