842
ACUS48 KWNS 290858
SWOD48
SPC AC 290856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tuesday for Corn Belt/Upper Midwest...
An amplifying shortwave trough and eastward-shifting strong early
summertime speed max will continue to influence the region on
Tuesday. Lingering convection/outflow from Monday night will likely
be a factor as far as spatial details, but it currently appears that
a very moist/unstable warm sector will focus across Iowa into
Tuesday afternoon and evening, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold
front. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially
intense and sustained storms including supercells. Have introduced
15 percent severe probabilities for this scenario, although spatial
adjustments and refinements will be needed in future outlooks.

...Day 5/Wednesday...
At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across
parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley within the moist/unstable
environment ahead of the advancing cold front. However, deep-layer
shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to
prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the
synoptic front across the central Plains. Limited predictability and
risk-magnitude uncertainties currently precludes 15+ percent
severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios.

...Days 6-8 Thursday-Saturday...
Predictability wanes into this time frame, although corridors of at
least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning
the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts
of the East.

..Guyer.. 06/29/2024