621
ACUS01 KWNS 030050
SWODY1
SPC AC 030049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the
Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High
Plains through early tonight.

...01Z Update...
A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken
convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS
should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther
northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on
northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower
MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for
scattered damaging winds should persist.

Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO
has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have
increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening
low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm
development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK
into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of
increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air
mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC
sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest
mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible.
These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before
convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN.

..Grams.. 07/03/2024

$$