286
ACUS02 KWNS 011729
SWODY2
SPC AC 011727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern
Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most
likely threat, with areas of hail.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the
Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the
northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will
remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will
flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest.

The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and
western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late
afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the
front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with
modest shear.

...Central Plains into the MS Valley...
Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the
southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by
late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast
near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA.
Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into
northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height
falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas
of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are
expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS
into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward
extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition.
Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where
heating and instability will be more robust.  Locally damaging gusts
may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and
possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS.

..Jewell.. 07/01/2024

$$