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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
959 ACUS03 KWNS 290745 SWODY3 SPC AC 290744 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... A mid/upper-level trough is expected to overspread the region with appreciable height falls, particularly by early summertime standards, as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. The influences of early day convection will probably be a modulating factor and point of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of a weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup may materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and possibly into parts of South Dakota. Seasonally strong deep-layer shear will support potentially intense supercells, with a risk for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Minnesota and Iowa Monday night. ...Southeast States... Some strong to locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front. Current thinking is that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 $$