-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
799
FXUS61 KBGM 031040
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
640 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, warm, and dry conditions are expected today. A weakening
front will move through the region tonight into Thursday morning
bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible again for Independence
Day, but coverage will be limited to Northeast PA and the
Catskills.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 AM Update...

Temperatures stayed quite warm in the northern portions of the
Finger Lakes region with the Syracuse metro staying in the 70s
all morning. Using a blend of short-range guidance, temperatures
and dewpoints were adjusted to better match the trend of obs
this morning. Light returns on radar are diminishing as some
scattered light rain/drizzle passed through portions of CNY
early this morning.

300 AM Update...

High pressure will continue to drift east of the region today but
quiet conditions are expected through most of the daytime hours.
Temperatures will climb into the 80s today. While skies will start
out mostly sunny, sky cover will increase from the northwest late
tonight as a front approaches the region. The pressure gradient
tightens up ahead of this front, so winds will be quite breezy
today. Peak gusts of 25+ mph will be possible.

Showers will begin to move into the region late today and
overnight as the front drops south. Isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out but instability will be quite limited
despite having some shear. Heavy rain showers will certainly be
possible as PWATs will be between 1.75 and 2 inches. Given the
drier conditions in recent days, hydro issues seem unlikely. WPC
also seems to agree as we no longer are in an outlook for
excessive rainfall. Temperatures will be fairly mild though,
only falling into the 60s.

Showers will linger into Independence Day as the front continues to
move through. With a shortwave moving in from the west, showers may
get some additional support across portions of NEPA and the
Catskills. Some model guidance does have at least 500 J/kg of MLCAPE
and 30 to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Lapse rates will not be steep
though. While a isolated strong storm or two could be possible in
the afternoon, there does not seem to be enough support for severe
storms. Highs are once again forecasted to be in the 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 AM Update...

Thursday night will have weak ridging trying to build in with
gradually increasing 500 mb heights though there is no
definitive ridge axis. Many of the global models have a stalled
surface front across central PA extending into the mid Atlantic
that could have showers and thunderstorms through the night so
chances of precipitation were kept in NEPA but removed north of
the Southern Tier.

Friday a surface low in the western Great Lakes deepens and
moves east with a warm front lifting into the region. The warm
air advection looks weak initially so despite some lift, it does
not look like enough forcing is in place to get much more than
a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms going during the day
Friday. Better dynamics move in Friday evening and overnight
with better lift as another warm front moves in with better
chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to
be good overnight with near 50 knots of 0-6 km shear but
forecast soundings show stable air near the surface and elevated
CAPE staying below 1000 J/kg with a low equilibrium level so
severe thunderstorms are unlikely overnight. Precipitable water
values will be over 1.5 inches and could approach 2 inches so
heavy rainfall will be likely with showers and thunderstorms
that do develop. Storm motions will be 20 to 30 knots so that
will limit residence time of the higher rain rates but any
training could lead to localized flash flooding potential Friday
night into Saturday morning.

The surface low passes north of the Region Saturday with a
front dragging through NY and PA. Timing of the front passage is
still a little uncertain but most of the overnight models had
the front through by mid to late morning Saturday keeping the
highest chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and
east of I-81 where there is time to get more instability to
build. The front will mainly advecting drier air so there is not
expected to be much of a temperature drop but likely an
increase in winds and falling dew points in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM Update...

The long term is looking hot and humid as a long wave trough
remains across the northern plains with the east coast remaining
on the west side of a ridge. SW flow will continue to advect in
the warm humid air with frequent embedded shortwaves bringing
frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms. Being on the edge
of the ridge, the 250 mb jet stream will be close by and mean
0-6 km shear is 20 to 40 knots Sunday into early next week.
Similar to last week, there is potential for a few stronger
thunderstorms each day with the heat and humidity leading to
instability developing with day time heating.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure will keep conditions at VFR throughout the daytime
hours today. A frontal boundary will bring rain and lowered
ceilings to all CNY terminals overnight. Scattered showers and
potentially isolated thunderstorms move in from the northwest
after 00z. Visibilities may also be reduced if a heavier shower
were to pass directly over a terminal. If showers reach AVP, it
will be after this TAF period.

Southerly winds will be quite strong today with sustained speeds
exceeding 10 kts and peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Winds will
become calmer tonight. Guidance wants to put low-level wind
shear at RME. Model soundings show marginal LLWS conditions, so
it was left out for now.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern
with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL