![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
689 ACUS48 KWNS 040851 SWOD48 SPC AC 040850 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday... The upper-level trough will dig slightly farther south into Oklahoma before lifting northeastward on Monday. For portions of the central/southern Plains, both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that convection will develop along the intersection of the cold and warm front within a weak surface low. Similar to Saturday, moisture will not be overly rich, but northward moisture return will be in progress. Convection is forecast to grow upscale into an MCS and move southward into the greater buoyancy. With differences in the position and intensity of the surface low, as well as possible impacts from convection on Saturday, predictability remains too low for the introduction of 15% total severe probabilities. TC Beryl continues to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula and is expected to reach the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, TX on Sunday per latest NHC forecasts. Some tornado risk is possible for parts of South Texas, but magnitude and spatial extent of this risk will depend on how much the TC restrengthens after interacting with the Peninsula and where the system will actually track late this weekend into early next week. ...D5/Monday and beyond... The upper-level trough will slowly make progress into the Midwest and eventually into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. While some severe risk is possible ahead of this trough, questions regarding destabilization and general lack of robust surface features during the upcoming week keep confidence too low for highlights at this time. ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024