471
ACUS02 KWNS 040548
SWODY2
SPC AC 040546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper
Ohio Valley on Friday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low in the Upper Midwest will continue eastward on
Saturday before becoming more of an open wave by Saturday morning. A
potent mid-level jet is anticipated across parts of the upper Ohio
Valley during the afternoon. At the surface, a low in the Lake
Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity will also track eastward, with a
attendant cold front moving through the Ohio Valley by mid/late
afternoon and evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
Uncertainty remains relatively high in the degree of surface-based
destabilization that will occur by the afternoon. Morning
showers/thunderstorms are possible within a weak warm advection
regime. Further, cloud cover from the remnants of convection moving
through the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday night may also have an
impact. Given the moist airmass (low 70s F dewpoints), broken cloud
cover would still allow 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (perhaps near 2000
J/kg in the southernmost areas). Effective shear will range from 35
kts to the south and increase to around 50 kts to the north. On the
lower end of destabilization, only isolated cells would be likely.
Should greater surface heating occur, a linear segment or two could
develop. Damaging winds and small hail are possible with the
strongest storms.

...Blue Ridge...
Strong heating is expected within a high PWAT airmass. Temperatures
are expected to reach the mid 90s F. Though mid-level heights will
remain neutral, convection is probable within the terrain. Weak
deep-layer shear and similarly weak anvil-level flow should keep
storm organization minimal. Confidence in more than isolated wet
microbursts is too low for highlights.

..Wendt.. 07/04/2024

$$