960
ACUS03 KWNS 040733
SWODY3
SPC AC 040732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe thunderstorms will exist across primarily parts
of the Plains on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Broad, low-amplitude troughing aloft will be present within much of
the CONUS apart from the West Coast. Shortwave perturbations moving
through the broader trough are expected from the central Plains into
the Midwest. At the surface, a low pressure system will be in
southeastern Canada. The reservoir of richer surface moisture will
have been pushed south of a cold front that will extend from the
southern High Plains into the Mid-South and Northeast. As
northwesterly flow aloft increases across the central Rockies,
models suggest a lee surface low will develop within the CO/KS/NE
vicinity. Models do differ on the intensity of this surface low as
well as its exact position.

...Plains...
Though moisture will have been reduced behind the cold front, models
suggest that low 60s F dewpoints are possible perhaps as far north
as Nebraska. In general, thunderstorm development is possible within
the lee trough in the southern High Plains, near the surface low in
the central High Plains, and also near a weak warm front/theta-e
boundary in eastern Nebraska. The exact scenario which will produce
the greatest severe risk remains uncertain, however. Given the
remnant moisture, northwest flow advecting steep lapse rates into
the region, and shortwave trough to provide forcing for ascent, some
severe risk appears probable. At this point in time, large hail with
initial supercells and a transition to more of a severe wind threat
(given relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads) are the
primary concerns. The outlook area will likely have to be refined as
additional guidance becomes available and confidence in corridors of
greatest risk increases.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front. Model trends
have been for less storm coverage. Additionally, the trough may
remain slightly displaced from the greatest buoyancy. Isolated
strong to severe storms are possible, but coverage is too uncertain
for highlights.

..Wendt.. 07/04/2024

$$