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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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288 ACUS01 KWNS 020551 SWODY1 SPC AC 020549 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN IA...AND NORTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and northeast Kansas between about 2 to 9 PM CDT. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... The broad mid/upper trough from the Prairie Provinces to the Intermountain West will shift east into far northwest Ontario to the Upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple embedded shortwave impulses, some of which are convectively enhanced, will progress within and ahead of the trough. The most prominent of which for severe potential is approaching the WY Rockies, and will track across the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts will amplify ahead of this impulse and spread over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley by late afternoon. ...Central KS to the Mid-MS Valley... A swath of decaying convection should be ongoing at 12Z this morning from parts of the Mid-MO Valley to the western Great Lakes. Differential boundary-layer heating amid pronounced insolation occurring to the south of morning outflow/cloud debris will yield a strengthening baroclinic zone from central KS northeastward into southeast IA. With minimal capping, renewed surface-based convection should occur in the early afternoon along this effective front. The aforementioned amplification of mid-level southwesterlies later in the day will aid in sustaining organized upscale growth, with embedded supercell and bowing structures possible. This appears to be most favored from northeast KS across northern MO and southern IA. Swaths of strong to severe gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. The northeast extent of the severe threat should abruptly diminish east of the MS River into IL, as convection eventually outpaces the north/south-oriented buoyancy plume. This should result in a progressive north-to-south weakening of the severe threat after dusk over the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valleys. ...Central/southern High Plains... At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible from late afternoon into mid-evening, within a post-frontal upslope flow environment from the Raton Mesa to the Black Hills, and a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer ahead of the front in the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. A more favorable corridor for supercell potential is evident in southeast CO to southwest KS where a plume of richer low-level moisture will reside north of the trailing front. There should be some cooling near the mid-level trough to slightly steepen mid-level lapse rates for a conditional large-hail threat, in addition to severe gusts. Convection in this region should weaken after dusk. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 $$