797
ACUS03 KWNS 020746
SWODY3
SPC AC 020745

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly
across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains.

...South-Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley to Upper Midwest...
A seasonally strong mid/upper-level trough will cross the Upper
Midwest on Thursday/Independence Day, with preceding height falls
and a related strong belt of westerlies extending from the
south-central Plains, eastward to the Ozarks, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic States. Likely influenced by early day
precipitation/outflows and lingering cloud cover, it appears the
strongest destabilization into Thursday afternoon will be across
Missouri and far eastern/southern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma
near a southeastward-moving front. Relatively strong westerlies
aloft will support organized storm modes, potentially including some
supercells, with storms otherwise likely to grow upscale and
organize east-southeastward across the Ozarks during the evening.

Farther north, although uncertainties exist related to early day
precipitation and later-day destabilization, at least isolated
severe thunderstorms may occur along the front Wednesday afternoon
and evening, as it extends from northern Missouri northward into
Iowa, southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin near a
surface low.

..Guyer.. 07/02/2024

$$