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205
FXUS61 KBGM 021851
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
251 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control of the weather across the region
through Wednesday. Temperatures will increase through midweek. A
frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. Another system moves through late in
the week with an additional round of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
130 PM Update...

Thin high clouds are scattered across the area with some fair
weather cumulus over parts of NEPA. High pressure is drifting
east of the area, and light/variable winds will trend towards
light southerly as the afternoon progresses. Temperatures look
to be on track, so no changes to the forecast at this time.

620 AM Update...

Fog has spread through the valleys, though it took slightly
longer than expected. This should lift within the next couple of
hours. Fog was added to more areas since the majority of the
river valleys are now filled with fog. Temperatures were also
touched up based on the latest observations. The rest of the
forecast was doing well and needed no additional changes.

310 AM Update...

fog is beginning to develop in some valleys as expected. Fog
will slowly spread through the river valleys early this morning
and then lift soon after sunrise.

High pressure will be in control throughout the near term period
with an upper-level ridge building into the region today. Skies will
start out mostly sunny though some fair weather cumulus will likely
develop during the late morning/early afternoon hours. High clouds
also begin to move in later in the day. Temperatures will be
noticeably warmer today as they climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Overnight, the pressure gradient begins to tighten up over the
region. As a result, winds will begin to increase during the late
overnight hours. Temperatures will be mild, only falling into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Stronger winds and dry conditions tonight will
not be favorable for fog development. Heading into Wednesday, winds
continue to increase and become breezy. Peak gusts up to 20 to 25
mph will be possible. South-southwesterly flow will advect in warmer
air, which will help temps climb into the 80s across the region.
With dewpoints forecasted to be in the 50s and low 60s, it should be
fairly pleasant for a July, summer day as humidity will be mild. Sky
cover increases ahead of an approaching frontal system. While a
stray shower or two ahead of the system cannot be ruled out in the
evening, most guidance brings the main band of rain in overnight
(next forecast period). PoPs were weighed toward the HREF and were
too low for any mention of rain in this portion of the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
250 PM Update...

A weak cold front will move through Central NY and NE PA
Thursday, bringing chances for rain showers and storms mainly in
the morning through the afternoon, but chances look to improve
heading towards the evening hours. For those looking to the
skies for nighttime light shows on Thursday, skies will remain
mostly cloudy from the Twin Tiers/Catskills southward, and
partly to mostly cloudy for Central NY. Temperatures are
expected in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday as well.

For Friday, slight chances for showers and storms linger with
the unsettled pattern, but chances begin to increase as a warm
front pushes northward into the region Friday evening.
Temperatures expected to be in the mid to high 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
250 PM Update...

A cold front will be close behind the aforementioned warm front,
moving in Saturday morning, continuing the chances for showers
and storms through the day. 0-6 km shear increases to up to 40
to 50 knots, and the positioning of this front could bring
training showers and storms. Any training showers or storms
could cause localized flash flooding. Additionally, CAPE values
also increase to 1000-1500 J/kg heading into Saturday afternoon,
leading to increased confidence of the potential development of
strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon. It`s a few days out
still, so we`ll keep monitoring storm potential for Saturday.
Heading into early next week, Sunday and Monday look drier,
while the next, and very much disorganized, system approaches
Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Just some high clouds and a few fair weather cu across the area
this afternoon. High pressure will drift east of the area this
evening, with variable winds trending towards light southerly
flow.

Patchy valley fog is possible tonight, but kept it out of the
ELM TAF for now as dewpoint depressions look to stay around 3-4
degrees there through dawn. We`ll see where the cross-over
temperature ends up later this afternoon and reassess the fog
potential.

Otherwise, expect continued VFR conditions with southerly flow
increasing on Wednesday, with a few gusts around 20-25 knots by
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...More unsettled pattern with
chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPH