-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
345
FXUS61 KBGM 031825
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
225 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, warm, and dry conditions are expected today. A weakening
front will move through the region tonight into Thursday morning
bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible again for Independence
Day, but coverage will be limited to Northeast PA and the
Catskills.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
215 PM Update...

A weak cold front will push its way through Central NY and NE PA
tonight, bringing chances for showers and storms. This front is
pretty weak, so chance for storm development is rather low, and
the best chances for some thunder will be mainly in NE PA and
the Catskills. Chances for showers will linger into Independence
Day, but mainly remain over NE PA and the Catskills.
Temperatures expected in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow, with
tonight`s overnight lows in the low 60s to low 70s, and
Thursday`s overnight lows in the low to upper 60s. Precipitation
amounts tonight through Independence Day is expected to be
between a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain. Any shower or
storm that passes over an area may have a short duration of
heavier downpours with localized greater amounts.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 AM Update...

Thursday night will have weak ridging trying to build in with
gradually increasing 500 mb heights though there is no
definitive ridge axis. Many of the global models have a stalled
surface front across central PA extending into the mid Atlantic
that could have showers and thunderstorms through the night so
chances of precipitation were kept in NEPA but removed north of
the Southern Tier.

Friday a surface low in the western Great Lakes deepens and
moves east with a warm front lifting into the region. The warm
air advection looks weak initially so despite some lift, it does
not look like enough forcing is in place to get much more than
a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms going during the day
Friday. Better dynamics move in Friday evening and overnight
with better lift as another warm front moves in with better
chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to
be good overnight with near 50 knots of 0-6 km shear but
forecast soundings show stable air near the surface and elevated
CAPE staying below 1000 J/kg with a low equilibrium level so
severe thunderstorms are unlikely overnight. Precipitable water
values will be over 1.5 inches and could approach 2 inches so
heavy rainfall will be likely with showers and thunderstorms
that do develop. Storm motions will be 20 to 30 knots so that
will limit residence time of the higher rain rates but any
training could lead to localized flash flooding potential Friday
night into Saturday morning.

The surface low passes north of the Region Saturday with a
front dragging through NY and PA. Timing of the front passage is
still a little uncertain but most of the overnight models had
the front through by mid to late morning Saturday keeping the
highest chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and
east of I-81 where there is time to get more instability to
build. The front will mainly advecting drier air so there is not
expected to be much of a temperature drop but likely an
increase in winds and falling dew points in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM Update...

The long term is looking hot and humid as a long wave trough
remains across the northern plains with the east coast remaining
on the west side of a ridge. SW flow will continue to advect in
the warm humid air with frequent embedded shortwaves bringing
frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms. Being on the edge
of the ridge, the 250 mb jet stream will be close by and mean
0-6 km shear is 20 to 40 knots Sunday into early next week.
Similar to last week, there is potential for a few stronger
thunderstorms each day with the heat and humidity leading to
instability developing with day time heating.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the 18Z TAF
period. Current southerly gusty winds at the majority of
terminals will taper off through this evening. A frontal
boundary will bring rain and lowered ceilings to all CNY
terminals overnight. Scattered showers and potentially isolated
thunderstorms move in from the northwest after 00z. Visibilities
may also be reduced if a heavier shower were to pass directly
over a terminal. If showers reach AVP, it will be towards the
end of this TAF period, but confidence is currently too low to
include in this TAF package.

Southerly winds will be quite strong today with sustained speeds
exceeding 10 kts and peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Winds will
become calmer tonight. Guidance continues to bring low-level
wind shear for RME for a couple hours between 02-04Z, so it`s
been included in this TAF package.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern
with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...KL