543
FXAK68 PAFC 191318
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Not a whole lot of changes to the forecast over the next few days.
High pressure is still progged to shift south with ridge axis
setting up over the Copper River Basin by Friday morning. This will
result in several more days of warm temperatures with for most of
Southcentral. The lower valleys of the Copper Basin should see
temperatures easily rise into the upper 70s today with some spots
reaching the lower 80s. Lingering cloud cover yesterday prevented
the Susitna Valley from reaching the mid 70s, but today they are
starting out with clear skies and should see temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s. Elsewhere, temperatures in the 60s and 70s will be
common...even for locations along the coast.

Limited instability and lack of flow over the Copper Basin today
should keep any convection tied to the slopes of the higher terrain.
Better convective chances will be across the Susitna Valley and
Talkeetna Mountains where a bit more mid-level moisture will
advect northwards along the western periphery of the ridge. Some
of that moisture will work into the Copper Basin by Friday,
increasing instability and slightly better chances for convection.

On Friday, a low over the Central Aleutians will lift a front up
into the western Gulf bringing rain and gusty gap winds to the AKPEN
and Kodiak Island by late Friday. The front will weaken as it
encounters the ridge and precipitation chances look to rapidly drop
off as the front washes out near the Barren Islands by Saturday
morning. Still, expect cloud cover to increase from west to east as
the front moves in, which will help stabilize the atmosphere and
limit convection to near the Wrangell Mountains by Saturday
afternoon. The surface gradient will increase over the coastal
mountains Saturday and could see winds tick up across the Copper
Basin in response.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

High pressure continues to sit over Southwest Alaska today.
Clearer skies today should allow for temperatures to increase
back into the 70`s for much of Southwest Alaska, with coastal
areas being cooler in the 60`s. Increased instability returns to
the interior locations. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across
the Kuskokwim Valley, northern Bristol Bay, and northeastern
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. Pockets of
scattered thunderstorms are possible in the Kuskokwim Valley,
primarily near Lime Village and between Sleetmute and Aniak.

Out west, an occluded front continues lifting north into the
Bering Sea. Widespread rain and small craft to gale force winds
are expected along the front. The front reaches the Alaska Peninsula
late Thursday night, eventually pushing into the Southwest coast
on Friday as a dying front. This will help shove the high pressure
north, bringing cloudier skies, a more stable atmosphere, and some
slightly cooler temperatures to Southwest Alaska for the weekend.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

There has been little overall change in the weather pattern
across the Alaskan zones. A broad upper level closed low and its
trough stretches across the Bering and extends a trough across
Southwest Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska through the forecast
period. The main low center meanders around the Central Bering. A
broad upper level ridge over most of Mainland Alaska reorients
with a high center forming across the Canadian border by midweek.
Individual models and ensembles remain is good agreement for the
large scale, for most of the forecast but begin to vary through
Wednesday. Greatest uncertainty rest with the smaller transient
details throughout the forecast.

Most of the Southern Interior will see scattered convection with
warmer temperatures south of the Alaska Range. Transient surface
lows and their fronts bring locally moderate rains across the
Central and Eastern Aleutians and Bering into Southwest Alaska,
the AKPEN and Kodiak Island by Tuesday. Frontal weather will
linger over Kodiak Island and the Southcentral coasts through
Wednesday. A second low and front starts another round of moderate
rain over the Western Aleutians and Bering late Sunday before
dissipating over the Central Aleutians on Tuesday. Another low and
front approaches the Western Aleutians on Wednesday.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected through the period with light
and variable winds becoming more southwesterly at 5 to 10 kts after
18Z Thursday.

&&


$$