853
FXUS63 KEAX 252006
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
306 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather pattern continues through Memorial Day with
  some isolated to scattered showers possible

- Mostly dry conditions for this upcoming work week

- Gradual warming trend into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

A few, decaying isolated showers that sparked along a diffuse
bounday this morning continue to move to the southeast as the
boundary sags farther to the southeast. Recent HRRR model runs
suggest the development of an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) just
to the south of our region over northern AR/southern MO. As the
southern fringes of our area enter the northern periphery of the MCS
Monday morning, there is a chance for a few isolated showers
primarily south of I-70. The severe threat is expected to be non-
existent with limited shear and instability present. Low
temperatures early Memorial Day morning will range in the low to mid
50s, a few degrees below seasonal averages. With precip chances and
extensive cloud coverage through most of the afternoon, expect a
small temperature spread between high and low temperatures. Highs
for Memorial Day only get into the upper 50s to low 60s which is
unseasonably cool for this time of year.

Mid to upper level troughing entering the Four Corners Regions will
send shortwaves through the flow resulting in intermittent rain
showers Monday evening into Tuesday mainly for areas north of I-70.
Thunderstorms seem very unlikely as instability and shear become
sparse throughout the area. By Tuesday evening, mid to upper level
ridging builds over the western U.S. producing a transient surface
high which descends from the ND/SD border. Broad-scale subsidence
will decrease PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) across the area
through most of Wednesday. A closed upper level low over MN results
in cyclogenesis over southern MO late Wednesday into Thursday which
returns rain chances (25%-35%) to the area early Thursday morning
through the afternoon.

Broad upper level ridging building over the western U.S begins to
shift easterly pushing the closed low farther east. As a result,
temperatures are anticipated to warm going into the weekend,
bringing us closer to seasonal averages. Extended model guidance
suggests highs in the 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period with a few pockets of MVFR
clouds still lingering. Sub-VFR conditions are anticipated to
improve through the afternoon for all terminals as showers continue
to move to the east of the terminals. Winds are currently out of the
northeast with an occasional gust to around 17-19 kts. Winds will
weaken after sunset but will increase again early tomorrow morning.
IFR conditions are anticipated early tomorrow morning with showers
developing to the south of the terminals. Another round of showers
is possible late tomorrow morning into the afternoon which could
reduce visibilities.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier