Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
180
FXUS64 KEPZ 182347
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
547 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday with
lowland highs 100 to 105, becoming cooler next week as
moisture arrives.
- Low end chances for thunderstorms exists tomorrow through
Saturday favoring the area mountains. Better rain chances
arrive Sunday as a good monsoonal tap sets up.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Upper level high pressure settled over Baja California will begin
shifting eastward in response to a digging upper low over the
PacNW. Meanwhile, the backdoor front that tried to push into the
area last night will fully be able to push in during the overnight
hours tonight and will push as far west as the AZ border by the
morning hours tomorrow. Moisture quickly mixes out Thursday
afternoon for areas along and west of the Rio Grande Valley but
better moisture will still linger over eastern portions of the
CWA. Dewpoints will be in the L-40s to L-50s degrees with the best
moisture found out east. CAMs are illustrating storms initiating
over the Black Range and Sacramento Mtns by mid day with storms in
the lowlands popping up a couple hours later. Storms will favor
locations east of the RGV. It does look like we`ll have some
instability overhead to fuel storms (around 500-1000J/kg) but the
suppression of the high pressure directly overhead will act
against this buoyancy. In addition, shear is very weak throughout
the column suggesting storms that pop up and drop which would
trigger off more thunderstorms from their outflows. The main
threat will be gusty outflow winds to 50 mph and blowing dust. The
other impact will be the hot temperatures. Current forecasted
high temperature for El Paso is 105F with current NBM
probabilities of reaching 105F being 72%. Portions of Luna county
and the lower valley will also be within Heat Advisory criteria
(105F+).
Rain chances will be similar Friday and Saturday with slight
chances of storms in the area mountains and some portions of the
lowlands. The better rain chances will be Sunday and onward as
it`s still looking good for a monsoonal tap to begin. Looks like
the Gila and locations along and west of the Continental Divide
will stay the driest out of the CWA with the main plume right over
the center of the CWA and eastward.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Only very limited convection in the Sacramento Mountains is
beginning to wind down. For tonight we will have VFR conditions.
Our winds will be light and variable or light out of the east to
southeast. Our ceilings tonight will be unlimited. On Thursday, we
will again see just a slight chance for thunderstorms in area
mountains. Winds will be from the east or southeast. We could see
some low end gusty winds Thursday afternoon. We may see some high
clouds from time to time, but like tonight we will have generally
unlimited ceilings Thursday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Elevated fire danger continues through Saturday due to critical
min RHs each afternoon across the lowlands. A backdoor front will
try once again to push through the area tonight. This front will
shift winds easterly with some breeziness possible as the front
pushes through, can expect wind speeds 10-20mph with higher winds
on west facing slopes. Moisture will funnel in behind the front
bringing tonight`s max RHs to 40 to 90 percent east of the Rio
Grande Valley. Thunderstorm chances return tomorrow and continue
each afternoon through Saturday. Expect generally slight chances
of storms favoring the area mountains and then spreading to the
lowlands. Gusty outflow winds will be an issue each day but
especially tomorrow where gusts could reach to 50 mph directly
near outflows. Wind speeds stay tame each afternoon through
Saturday with speeds only around 10-15mph. Ventilation rates will
be good to excellent through Sunday becoming poor to good Monday
and Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 78 105 78 104 / 0 10 10 0
Sierra Blanca 67 96 68 95 / 0 20 10 0
Las Cruces 70 101 72 101 / 0 10 10 0
Alamogordo 69 98 69 99 / 0 30 0 0
Cloudcroft 52 76 53 76 / 0 30 10 20
Truth or Consequences 73 101 73 101 / 0 20 0 10
Silver City 66 95 67 95 / 0 10 10 10
Deming 70 105 72 104 / 0 10 10 10
Lordsburg 67 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 10
West El Paso Metro 78 101 78 101 / 0 10 10 0
Dell City 70 99 70 100 / 0 20 10 0
Fort Hancock 74 106 76 103 / 0 20 10 0
Loma Linda 70 95 70 94 / 0 10 10 0
Fabens 75 105 76 102 / 0 10 10 0
Santa Teresa 74 101 76 100 / 0 10 10 0
White Sands HQ 77 101 77 100 / 0 10 10 0
Jornada Range 70 101 70 100 / 0 20 10 0
Hatch 69 103 72 103 / 0 20 10 10
Columbus 74 104 76 104 / 0 10 10 10
Orogrande 72 99 72 99 / 0 20 10 0
Mayhill 56 85 56 87 / 0 30 0 20
Mescalero 57 88 58 87 / 0 30 0 20
Timberon 55 84 55 85 / 0 30 0 10
Winston 58 93 58 92 / 0 20 0 10
Hillsboro 67 100 66 99 / 0 20 0 10
Spaceport 66 100 68 99 / 0 20 10 0
Lake Roberts 61 96 62 96 / 0 20 0 10
Hurley 65 99 67 99 / 0 10 10 10
Cliff 64 103 68 102 / 0 10 0 0
Mule Creek 62 99 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 68 98 68 97 / 0 10 10 10
Animas 65 103 68 103 / 0 10 10 10
Hachita 67 102 70 101 / 0 10 10 10
Antelope Wells 67 103 69 101 / 0 10 10 20
Cloverdale 69 98 69 96 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Rio Grande Valley
of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande
Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.
NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice