164
FXUS62 KFFC 152011
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
411 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Key Messages:

    - Above normal high temps for Friday and Saturday lead to near
      record highs for KATL.

    - Dry conditions through Friday with rain chances increasing
      overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

Discussion:

Ridging is solidly in place over the southeast with sfc high
pressure extending from the Gulf into the southeast. This is
allowing cloud cover to taper off for the most part across the state
of Georgia except for high level cirrus as there is a lack of
moisture in place for today. PWATs are at 0.89" as of he morning
sounding which is below the median for this time of year. This along
with a large area of dry air in the mid levels is also indicative of
the high pressure in place. With this high pressure pushing into
tomorrow as well ahead of our next system, temps will rise into the
upper 80s to low 90s across the area with ATL nearing a record high
temp. Current forecasted temp is 90 and the record is 91. Other
sites have record highs closer to the mid 90s so shouldn`t see any
of those areas in danger of breaking a record.

Tomorrow morning, should see an area of low clouds push in from the
southwest which ultimately should stay closer to Columbus. For the
remainder of tomorrow expecting dry conditions with only high level
cirrus over the area. The transition period from Friday overnight
into Saturday morning is when the next batch of weather will push
into the area. An upper level low will push into the great lakes
region while an attached cold front pushes into north Georgia by
late Friday night. Into early Saturday morning precip chances
increase to 60-70% where the front begins pushing in to the area.
First runs of the CAMs came in at 12z showing a line of showers and
thunderstorms pushing in during this time. SPC has outlined our area
in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for this time frame but would not
be surprised to see an upgrade into Saturday. Overall with the shear
and CAPE values in play overnight the severe risk is there but with
the timing being overnight, the severe risk will likely not be as
high as if it were in the afternoon. This continues into Saturday
during the day which the long term goes into below.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 409 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Key Messages:

  - Warm to hot. Highs on many days in long term will be in upper
    80s to lower 90s, depending on cloud cover and other factors.

  - Small chance of severe weather on Saturday currently.
    Conditional threat. Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) in place,
    damaging winds primary concern).

Forecast:

Saturday morning will see slow moving upper level low to the north
of the CWA finally get a kick to the east which will continue to
push a front into the CWA during the morning into the afternoon
hours. This front is expected to stall over the area as upper level
forcing quickly moves away from it. Ahead of this line during the
morning hours, CAMs show a line to broken line of convection moving
into north Georgia ahead of this front that tends to be dissipating
or trending downward across the ensemble suite. The current Marginal
Risk on Saturday covers any continued severe convection as this line
moves in as well as the potential for some afternoon redevelopment.
Redevelopment looks to be very conditional on how quickly that line
dissipates and how much cloud cover is in place to limit day time
heating. With upper level forcing clearing the area and the front
mostly stalling, we may be more dependent on reaching convective
temperature in order to get any storms to fire off. If that can
happen, some unidirectional shear and instability will be in place
to allow for some isolated severe storms. MLCAPE values in many
models are above 1500 J/kg and shear of 20-25 kts should be enough
for isolated damaging wind gusts. Hail threat is likely more
limited, but not zero, especially given the bigger instability
values.

As the larger wave slowly moves east, a quick hitting shortwave
traveling within the larger wave guide will move into the area on
Sunday, bringing rain chances that may be enhanced by the stalled
surface boundary over the area as moisture is re-lifted over the
top of it. This looks at this time to be mostly rain with a few
embedded thunderstorms possible. Not expecting severe weather, but
worth monitoring, especially once the CAMs get a hold of it. It`s
May, after all.

The front that pushes through the area won`t bring much in the way
of relief from temps as we quickly get another deeper wave that
ejecting into the Great Plains on Monday and moves NE. This will
bring more moisture and warm temps from the Gulf back into north and
central Georgia and keep the near summer like temps in place. Highs
on Monday are currently forecast to surge back into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Next shot of rain/storms looks to be the middle of next
week as this system approaches the area. Still uncertainty around
how this will play out, but this does have a chance to be a bit more
potent and will need to be monitored going forward.Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

There is some high level cirrus across Georgia but for the most
part seeing clearing skies. For the remainder of this afternoon
and evening, wind gusts up to 20 mph are expected. Overnight,
gusts should begin to taper off with high level cirrus sticking
around. Early tomorrow morning, a deck of MVFR clouds pushes up
from the southwest into CSG. There remains a low chance that this
MVFR deck could push into the metro ATL sites from 10-12z but
confidence is very low. Should see gusts again tomorrow and a
scattered cu field ~4-5kft.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on MVFR deck.
High on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  70  87 /   0   0  10  10
Atlanta         70  90  71  88 /   0   0  10  20
Blairsville     65  85  64  81 /  10  10  60  30
Cartersville    68  90  69  87 /  10   0  40  30
Columbus        68  92  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     70  89  71  86 /   0  10  20  20
Macon           68  92  68  90 /   0   0   0  10
Rome            69  89  68  87 /  10   0  50  30
Peachtree City  68  91  69  88 /   0   0  10  20
Vidalia         69  94  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Hernandez