570
FXUS65 KPUB 190946
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today begins a period of excessive heat and high fire danger, with
the highest temperatures coming in tomorrow and the strongest winds
coming in on Saturday.

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect over our central and western
  mountains for Friday.

- Heat Advisories are in effect for Friday over El Paso, Pueblo,
  and eastern Fremont counties.

-Hot, breezy, and dry through the weekend. Slightly cooler
 temperatures and thunderstorm chances return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Currently..

Clear skies and very dry air can be seen on water vapor satellite
imagery across the region as ridging builds from our south.
Temperatures are still in the 60s and low 70s as of 1 am this
morning. Dewpoints are in the 40s over the I-25 corridor and low 50s
elsewhere on our plains. Winds are light but are still mainly
southerly and have not come around to normal drainage directions yet
this morning.

Today and Tonight..

Today begins a several day stretch of dangerous heat and drying
conditions, with the hottest temperatures rolling in on Friday. For
today though, high pressure continues to build to our south, leaving
us in the northern periphery of the ridge throughout the day. This
will help temperatures to climb as mid-level heights rise and
southerly winds increase across the area. Highs today look to be
around 8 to 10 degrees above normal, with upper 80s over mountain
valleys, 90s for much of the plains, and a few 100s over the Lower
Arkansas River Valley near La Junta and Lamar. A few thunderstorms
may also be possible this afternoon along a weak surface trough that
models drape across our southeastern plains from around Trinidad to
Lamar. Chances for decent rainfall with storms today will be low,
with dewpoint depressions of around 100/40... this setup will
however be favorable for virga and outflow winds with gusts to 60
mph possible. Forecast soundings show inverted V profiles with
around 2000 J/Kg of DCAPE for this afternoon. SPC has this area
outlined for a marginal risk for severe storms as well, with the
main risk being damaging winds. The good news is that synoptic winds
look to remain below critical fire weather thresholds for most
zones, though the San Luis Valley could see brief periods of gusts
over 25 mph, especially along our southern border with NM.
Unfortunately neither our dewpoints recover through the overnight
hours as our dry airmass remains in place and many areas stay mixed
well into the evening. Overnight lows look to be around 7 to 9
degrees warmer than normal heading into Friday morning, with
portions of our eastern plains only cooling off into the mid 70s
(this is 12 degrees above normal for Lamar!) this warm night tonight
will set the stage for excessive heat and Red Flag conditions on
Friday..

Tomorrow..

By Friday we are situated on the backside of the ridge, under strong
southwesterly flow aloft. Downsloping winds will only help us to
warm more efficiently under clear skies and very dry conditions.
Temperatures are expected to climb to around 9 to 12 degrees above
normal tomorrow, which will mean upper 80s for mountain valleys,
upper 90s for our mountain adjacent plains, and low to mid 100s (up
to around 105F) for the rest of the plains. Furthermore,
southwesterly winds are likely to gust up to 35 mph across the area,
with higher gusts over mountain peaks. This will tank our humidities
and lead to very critical meteorological fire weather conditions.
Thankfully, many of our fire weather zones are still very green from
recent rainfall, which has spatially limited the extent our Red Flag
Warnings for tomorrow. For now, only the San Juans, La Garitas, and
central mountains are under Red Flag Warnings for tomorrow, where
fuels have been deemed critical by partners. Continued dry
conditions and above normal temperatures could lead to changes in
fuels and expanded highlights across the I-25 corridor, the San Luis
Valley, and possibly the eastern mountains.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

An upper-level low will push onshore over the Pacific Northwest as
we move into the weekend, causing breezy southwest flow to settle in
over our area. Downsloping and enhanced heating will continue our
trend of warm temperatures, with Saturday`s highs in the 90s to low-
100s over the plains, and 80s over the high valleys. Will have to
monitor incoming trends in cloud cover and moisture in the area to
determine the need for another Heat highlight, but have held off for
now due to low confidence and slightly lower temperatures.
Meanwhile, another day of critical fire weather conditions is
expected, with a Fire Weather Watch in effect for our western
mountains, where fuels are driest. Otherwise, our CWA will remain
generally dry and breezy through the rest of the day.

The upper trough deepens a bit on Sunday, advecting a bit more
potential moisture into the region as southwest winds increase.
Temperatures will level out a bit, just a few degrees shy of
Saturday, with gusty surface winds. Meanwhile, models do hint at a
slight uptick in precipitation chances, particularly over the far
southeast plains. Southerly winds could bring up enough Gulf
moisture for something of a dryline setup, though it is still
unclear if we`ll get enough moisture for any strong to severe
storms. As of now, a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in
the late afternoon to early evening hours.

A front is expected to pass over the plains on Monday, as a piece of
energy from the trough ejects far to our north. Temperatures will be
knocked down to near-seasonal levels, typically in the 80s over most
of the lower areas, and moisture will be more abundant. This may
serve to decrease critical fire weather chances, but will certainly
increase the potential for more afternoon showers and thunderstorms
each day through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours at COS, PUB and
ALS. Generally light diurnal winds last until later this morning,
with slightly more mixing leading to gusty southerly winds up
to 25kts at the taf sites this afternoon into early evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Friday for COZ220-223.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ220-223.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR